TORONTO, August 4, 2026 – With less than three months to go before Toronto’s municipal election, a new poll shows incumbent Mayor Olivia Chow still leading councillor Brad Bradford, though the gap has narrowed into a range that could be affected by changes during the campaign.
The Toronto Pulse survey released by Liaison Strategies shows that among voters who have decided or are leaning toward a candidate, Chow has 49 per cent support, while Bradford has 41 per cent. Other candidates together have 10 per cent. The gap between the two leading candidates is eight percentage points.
The survey was conducted from July 24 to 26 and reached 1,000 Toronto residents. Compared with the previous survey conducted from late June to early July, Chow’s support remained unchanged at 49 per cent, while Bradford rose from 40 per cent to 41 per cent, narrowing the gap by one point.
When undecided voters are included, Chow has 39 per cent support, Bradford has 33 per cent, other candidates have eight per cent, and 20 per cent of respondents remain undecided. With one in five voters still not committed to a candidate, the campaign, candidate performance and sudden city issues could still change the race.
The poll also shows that Toronto residents are evenly divided on the city’s overall direction. Forty-six per cent of respondents said Toronto is moving in the right direction, while another 46 per cent said the city is on the wrong track. Eight per cent were unsure.
Chow’s personal job approval remains relatively stable. Fifty-one per cent of respondents approve of her performance as mayor, while 43 per cent disapprove and six per cent have no clear opinion. Although approval still exceeds disapproval, the split over the city’s direction gives challengers room to campaign.
Bradford’s name recognition among Toronto residents also continues to grow. Positive views of him rose from 29 per cent in the previous survey to 31 per cent, while negative views also increased from 23 per cent to 26 per cent. The share of respondents who said they were completely unfamiliar with him dropped from 35 per cent to 31 per cent. This means more residents are forming clear opinions of him, but increased recognition has not only produced positive impressions.
Regional results also show clear differences in the two main candidates’ support bases. Among residents who have decided or are leaning toward a candidate, Chow leads in the downtown area by 55 per cent to 36 per cent, in North York by 52 per cent to 37 per cent, and in Scarborough by 50 per cent to 41 per cent. Bradford’s strongest result is in Etobicoke, where he leads 54 per cent to 35 per cent.
Toronto’s next municipal election will be held on October 26, when voters will choose a mayor, city councillors and school board trustees. Regular voting hours will run from 10 a.m. to 8 p.m. that day, while advance voting is scheduled from October 6 to 11.
The survey was conducted by automated telephone interviews, using a random sample of landline and cellphone numbers, and weighted according to 2021 census data. A sample of 1,000 people carries a margin of error of approximately plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
This means the poll should not be treated as a final election result. Although Chow currently remains ahead, the gap between her and Bradford, together with the 20 per cent of voters who remain undecided, means that issues such as housing, transit, public safety and municipal finances could still affect voters’ final choices over the next two months.（LJI by Yuanyuan）
